Estimating work is one of the toughest parts of project management. Teams want to be accurate, but many organizations expect perfect estimates and that’s where problems begin. The truth is, there’s no such thing as a perfect estimate. Treating them as guarantees leads to frustration, delays, and loss of trust. Instead of chasing perfection, teams should aim for realistic, reliable estimates that stakeholders can actually use for decision-making.
Here you can explore why “perfect” estimates can do more harm than good, and explore five practical ways to create accurate estimates that everyone trusts.
Why Treating Estimates as Guaranteed Backfires?
In many companies, leaders assume that every estimate given by a team is a promise. When work takes longer than expected, managers often blame the team. This creates three common problems, teams start padding estimates – To avoid blame, teams add extra time. While this may look safe, it often causes stakeholders to reject useful work because it seems too expensive or time-consuming.
Student Syndrome kicks in even with padding, teams sometimes procrastinate and rush near deadlines, leading to poor results. Trust erodes when padded estimates still fail, stakeholders stop trusting the team. The result? A culture where estimates lose their value.
5 Ways to Create Reliable Estimates
Agree on the Type of Estimate
Different people think differently, some give best-case numbers, others worst-case. To avoid confusion, align the team on median estimates (a 50/50 chance of being higher or lower). This creates consistency.
Educate Stakeholders
Stakeholders often think estimates are guarantees. Explain the difference with simple examples—like travel time. A 30-minute median estimate to reach a restaurant could stretch to 90 minutes if “everything goes wrong.” This helps stakeholders understand that estimates are probabilities, not promises.
Share Plans as Ranges, Not Absolutes
Instead of saying, “We’ll deliver 10 features by June”, say “We’ll deliver 8–11 features”. Ranges are more realistic and build confidence, even if a few estimates miss the mark.
Focus on Accuracy Over Time
Don’t worry about making every estimate perfect. Instead, aim to be right on average across many backlog items. Using proven methods like the Fibonacci sequence (1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13) balances underestimation and overestimation.
Use Numbers That Matter
Teams can’t tell the difference between 42 and 43 points. That’s why frameworks like Fibonacci are useful, they create meaningful gaps. Always use estimating scales that are clear and easy to compare.
Accurate planning doesn’t mean perfection—it means communication, trust, and balance. When teams stop chasing flawless estimates and start focusing on reliable, transparent ones, both productivity and trust improve.
If you want to learn how to build strong estimating and planning practices, HelloSM, the best Scrum training institute in Hyderabad, offers expert-led Agile and Scrum courses that help professionals and teams master these skills.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why do teams struggle with estimates?
Because estimates are often treated as guarantees. Teams feel pressure to be “perfect,” leading to padded or unrealistic numbers.
How can stakeholders trust estimates more?
By understanding that estimates are ranges, not promises. Clear communication helps manage expectations.
Can training help improve estimation skills?
Yes! Programs like HelloSM’s Agile and Scrum courses give teams practical tools for estimation, planning, and delivering value with confidence.
